NBA MVP RACE IS LUKA, WEMBY AND SGA, A HALF GAME APART

Two and a half weeks into the 2026 to 27 season, the NBA MVP race is three players whose teams sit a half game apart. Luka Doncic is averaging 38.5 points for the 7 and 2 Lakers. Victor Wembanyama is averaging 29.0 points, 12.4 rebounds and 4.5 blocks for the 6 and 2 Spurs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has won the award two years running, is averaging 30.1 points for the 6 and 2 Thunder.

The prediction markets split the first two almost evenly. On Friday, Kalshi and Polymarket had Wembanyama at about 35 to 36 percent and Doncic at 32 to 35, according to a Win Daily comparison of the two. A week earlier Wembanyama was at 27 to 30 and Doncic at 19 to 22. Gilgeous-Alexander went the other way, from 18 percent on both to 11 to 13.

Doncic Is Scoring at a Rate Only Wilt Chamberlain Has Topped

Eight games is a small sample, and Basketball Reference already counts it. At 38.5 points a game, Doncic sits third on its single season scoring list, behind only Wilt Chamberlain's 50.4 in 1961 to 62 and 44.8 in 1962 to 63. Michael Jordan's 37.1 in 1986 to 87 is below him. So are James Harden's 36.1 in 2018 to 19 and Kobe Bryant's 35.4 in 2005 to 06.

What makes the number hold up is how he is getting it. He is shooting 49.5 percent from the field, 43.1 percent on 13.6 threes a game and 89.3 percent on 10.5 free throws a game, a true shooting percentage of 68.5 by his game logs. He has made 47 threes in eight games and is adding 8.1 rebounds and 8.0 assists.

He scored 52 at Utah in October, then put up 45 against Toronto, 42 against Miami and 40 at Sacramento, three straight 40 point games and five in a season nine Lakers games old. The two Lakers losses came on nights he scored 41 against Portland and 37 at Golden State, so the scoring has not been the problem.

Turnovers and Availability Are the Case Against Him

Doncic is turning it over 5.1 times a game, 41 times in eight games, including 11 against the Clippers and 7 in the 45 point night against Toronto. Wembanyama has 17 turnovers in his eight games and Gilgeous-Alexander has 16.

Availability cost him last year. Doncic finished fourth in last season's voting, and he and Cade Cunningham fell just short of the games cutoff for postseason awards before being let in on appeal, according to ESPN. He has already missed one of the Lakers' nine games this season.

Wembanyama Is Doing Two Jobs at Historic Rates

His 4.5 blocks a game would rank sixth for a single season on Basketball Reference's list, behind Mark Eaton's record 5.56 in 1984 to 85, Manute Bol's 4.96, Elmore Smith's 4.85, Eaton's 4.61 a year later and Hakeem Olajuwon's 4.59. None of those seasons came with 29.0 points and 12.4 rebounds attached.

His case also has the best single game of the season. He had 52 points, 24 rebounds and 8 blocks in a 112 to 111 win over Dallas on Wednesday, a line StatMuse's game logs show no one else reaching. His first half of 29, 15 and 5 made him the first player of the play by play era, which starts with 1997 to 98, to reach 25, 10 and 5 in a half, according to the NBA. Earlier in the homestand he scored 43 against Minnesota.

The Spurs have won six straight since opening 0 and 2, and his true shooting sits at 57.0.

His Jumper and His Health Are the Case Against Him

He is shooting 24.0 percent from three, 12 for 50, and 76.9 percent at the line. The opener still sits on his record, a 1 for 13 night against Oklahoma City in a 116 to 104 loss while Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32. Even that night he had 13 rebounds and 6 blocks and went 10 for 12 at the line, and Gilgeous-Alexander added 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks and 3 steals.

The bigger question is games. He played 181 regular season games in his first three seasons, about 60 a year, according to ESPN's career totals. The people who run teams are not worried. In the annual NBA GM Survey released October 15, he drew 77 percent of the MVP vote, a survey record, and he was our preseason pick too. Last season he finished third with five first place votes and won Defensive Player of the Year unanimously.

Gilgeous-Alexander Is Chasing a Third Straight

Gilgeous-Alexander became the 14th player to win back to back MVPs in May, taking 83 of 100 first place votes after averaging 31.1 points on 55.3 percent shooting for a 64 and 18 Thunder team. "It's more than me, it's bigger than me," he said after winning it. A third would put him with Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird, the only NBA players to win three in a row.

His scoring has held this year and his efficiency has not, at least yet. He is shooting 44.7 percent from the field against a career 50.7 and 35.6 percent from three, a true shooting percentage of 55.8. His two best nights came in his last two games, 43 and 42 points in consecutive wins over Cleveland. Before those came the two losses that moved the markets, by 24 at Dallas and by 21 at Houston, where he scored 21 and 26.

The GMs left him off the podium. Despite his two trophies, he was not in the top three of the survey's MVP vote, behind Wembanyama, Nikola Jokic at 10 percent and Anthony Edwards at 7. He does own the record he took from Wilt Chamberlain for consecutive 20 point games, a streak that started in November 2024.

None of Their Teams Leads the West

The award is voted on by a panel of 100 media members, and Gilgeous-Alexander won both of his with the league's best record. Right now none of the three leads the West. Portland is first at 6 and 1. The Lakers and Houston are 7 and 2, and Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Memphis are all 6 and 2. The Thunder are fourth in their own conference.

That leaves the individual lines doing the work. Doncic leads the three in points, assists, three point shooting and true shooting. Wembanyama leads in rebounds and blocks and owns the best single game. Gilgeous-Alexander has the trophies and the only head to head win among the three teams so far.

Jokic, Tatum and Edwards Are Still in the Markets

Jokic, who has finished in the top two of the voting six straight years, is averaging 23.4 points, 9.7 rebounds and 9.3 assists in seven games and shooting 21.9 percent from three. The markets have moved him from around 10 percent to 5.5 to 7.5. Jayson Tatum is at 27.0 points and 7.9 assists on 41.8 percent shooting, at 3.8 to 7.5 percent. Edwards is scoring 33.3 a game but has played only four.

Eight Games Will Move It

The three teams have eight games left against each other, all times Eastern. The Lakers play at San Antonio on November 27. The Thunder visit the Lakers on January 26, the Lakers go back to San Antonio on February 6, and the Spurs play at Oklahoma City on February 11. March has Thunder at Lakers on the 6th and Spurs at Thunder on the 14th. The last two come in April, Lakers at Thunder on the 1st and Spurs at Lakers on the 4th.

Sixty Five Games Is the Fourth Candidate

The award requires 65 games, which leaves each player room to miss 17. Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander have played all eight of their teams' games. Doncic has played eight of the Lakers' nine and has 16 misses left to spend.