Our Picks for Every NBA Award as the New Season Opens

The NBA opened its season on October 20 with the Celtics and the Pistons, and almost nothing about the league looks the way it did in June. The Knicks are champions for the first time in 53 years. The Spurs lost the Finals 4 to 1 and are the favorite anyway. LeBron James plays for Philadelphia, Giannis Antetokounmpo plays for Miami, and new rules meant to end tanking mean all 30 teams are supposed to be trying. Here are the storylines that will decide the year, and our pick for every major award.

Six Storylines That Shape the Season

The Knicks defend a title they waited 53 years for. New York won the Emirates NBA Cup in December and the championship in June, the league's first double, with a 13 game playoff winning streak and the biggest comeback in Finals history, 29 points in Game 4 capped by OG Anunoby's tip in with 1.2 seconds left. The second apron kept the roster mostly intact, with Andre Drummond replacing Mitchell Robinson. The parade is over, and every opponent now plans for them.

The Spurs want the series back. San Antonio looked like the more talented team and still lost in five. Half of the league's general managers picked the Spurs to win in 2027 in this month's GM survey, against 43 percent for the Thunder.

Philadelphia went all in. The 76ers traded Paul George and four draft picks for Jaylen Brown and signed LeBron at the veteran minimum. A starting five of Brown, James, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe works if Embiid stays healthy and if James, who turns 42 in December, still has the legs.

Giannis is in Miami. The Heat finally landed a generational star, and it cost Tyler Herro, multiple first round picks and three prospects. The question is depth around Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo.

The anti tanking rules change the bottom of the table. Washington is the clearest example, adding Trae Young and Anthony Davis around AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 pick.

Stars return from long injuries. Jayson Tatum is back from Achilles surgery and carries Boston without Brown. Tyrese Haliburton is back in Indiana. Damian Lillard is working back in Portland next to Ja Morant. Kawhi Leonard is in Toronto again, traded for Brandon Ingram after the Clippers' penalty.

Most Valuable Player, Victor Wembanyama

Wembanyama opened as the betting favorite, around plus 200, ahead of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has won the last two. He finished third in last season's voting, and GMs gave him 77 percent of the MVP vote in the survey, a record. The only real case against him is the 65 game minimum. He has averaged 60.3 games a season, so availability is the race. Our pick is Wembanyama, with Gilgeous-Alexander the answer if he misses time.

Defensive Player of the Year, Wembanyama Again

He just became the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year, and FanDuel had him at minus 340 in August, with Chet Holmgren a distant second. Nobody changes the geometry of a possession the way he does. If the games requirement takes him out, our fallback is Scottie Barnes, the heart of what should be one of the best defenses in the East.

Rookie of the Year, Cameron Boozer

This class is deep, and the race is open, with Boozer, Caleb Wilson, Darryn Peterson and Dybantsa all priced close together. Opportunity decides it. Dybantsa starts behind Young and Davis in Washington, and Peterson behind Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. in Utah. Boozer, the No. 3 pick, walks into Memphis as the focal point of the offense next to Zach Edey. He is our pick.

Sixth Man of the Year, Dylan Harper

Harper averaged 18 points, six rebounds and three assists in the Finals and scored 25 in Game 5. He may be too good to stay on the bench all season, and that is the only risk. As long as he comes off it, he is the best reserve on the best bench in the league, the same bench that produced last year's winner, Keldon Johnson.

Most Improved Player, Brandon Miller

Charlotte traded LaMelo Ball to Minnesota, and the ball now runs through Miller. He has topped 20 points before, and with that usage a jump toward 28 points and five assists is realistic. Second year players almost never win this award, which is part of why Harper and Collin Murray-Boyles are not the pick.

Clutch Player of the Year, Anthony Edwards

Jalen Brunson opened as the betting favorite and Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning winner, but our pick is Edwards. He finished as a finalist last season, carried one of the league's highest clutch usage rates, and now has Ball to stop defenses loading up on him in the final minutes.

Coach of the Year, Darko Rajakovic

Toronto won 46 games last season, then swapped Ingram for Leonard, a better defender and a better shot creator in the exact spots the Raptors needed. Rajakovic built that defense, and if the Raptors clear their win total by as much as we expect, the credit goes to him.

All NBA First Team

Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Last season's first team was Wembanyama, Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, Doncic and Cade Cunningham, the top five in MVP voting. We keep four and swap in Antetokounmpo, now wearing No. 7, who should carry a heavier load in Miami than any star in the East. Cunningham is the closest call left off.

All Defensive First Team

Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren, Ausar Thompson, Scottie Barnes and Bam Adebayo. Holmgren and Thompson were Defensive Player of the Year finalists last season. Barnes was left off the first team last season, and our bet is he does not get left off again. Adebayo anchors a Miami defense that needs him more than ever with Antetokounmpo beside him.

Champion, the Spurs

San Antonio has the MVP favorite, the Defensive Player of the Year favorite and the Sixth Man favorite on one roster, plus a Finals loss to answer for. The GMs picked them, and so do we. Our Finals is a rematch with New York, and this time the Spurs close it out.