WORLD CUP 2026: WHO IS THROUGH AND WHO WINS IT

We are most of the way through the group stage of the first 48 team World Cup, and the shape of the thing is finally clear. As of June 24, seven nations have already booked their place in the round of 32, a handful are out, and the tournament has quietly become exactly what the doubters feared and the romantics hoped: bigger, louder, and full of story. Start with who is through. Mexico leads Group A and is into the knockouts, the co-host riding a home crowd that has not stopped. The United States is through too, topping Group D after a clean win over Australia, the kind of result a host needs to quiet the nerves. Germany has been the most ruthless team in the field, leading Group E and putting up a 7-1 demolition of Curacao that reads like a typo. Argentina, the defending champion, sits atop Group J. France, the favorite to win the whole thing, opened with a 3-0 over Iraq and leads Group I, with Norway joining them out of the same group on the back of a wild 3-2 win over Senegal. Colombia rounds out the early qualifiers, leading Group K. On the other end, the format has already claimed its first casualties. Haiti, Turkey, Tunisia, Jordan and Panama are out. That is the part of the 48 team experiment people argued about: the top two from each of the twelve groups advance, plus the eight best third place finishers, which means a team can lose and still survive, and a team can play well and still go home on a tiebreaker. It is messy. It is also producing drama every single night, which was the entire point. Now the favorites. The market has settled on France, around +400, the deepest and most balanced side in the field and the one least likely to beat itself. Spain is right behind, carried by 18 year old Lamine Yamal, who [ended Spain's drought](/quick/lamine-yamal-first-world-cup-goal-spain-saudi-arabia-2026) and looks like the player the next decade gets built around. Argentina sits in the next tier, and you would be brave to bet against Lionel Messi in what is almost certainly his final World Cup, especially after he [passed Klose as the tournament's all time leading scorer](/quick/messi-passes-klose-as-the-world-cups-top-scorer). England carries talent and the usual questions. Portugal has one of the deepest squads in the competition around a 41 year old Cristiano Ronaldo, who [scored his 144th international goal](/quick/ronaldo-scores-144th-goal-ends-world-cup-drought) to end his own drought. That last point is the real story under the standings. This is, in all likelihood, the final World Cup for both Messi and Ronaldo, the two players who have defined the sport for twenty years, on the stage at the same time, both still scoring, both still deciding matches. You will not see that again. There is a generational handoff happening on top of it. Yamal is 18 and already the gravity of the Spanish attack. France is stacked with young talent. The old guard is taking its bow while the next era introduces itself in the same tournament, which is a rare thing to watch in real time. And then there is the host story. The United States, Mexico and Canada are all carrying the weight of putting this on, and so far the home soil has held. Mexico and the USA are through. Canada hammered Qatar 6-0. For three nations that needed this tournament to land, the early returns are about as good as they could have asked for. So who wins it. The honest answer is France, on paper, with the depth and the fewest weaknesses. But the bracket is not drawn, the round of 32 runs June 28 to July 3, and a 48 team field means more landmines than ever. Spain has the best young player alive. Argentina has the best player ever and a champion's hunger. Germany looks terrifying. The favorite is France. The story everyone will watch is whether Messi or Ronaldo can write one last chapter before the lights go down on both of them. The group stage did its job. The real tournament starts now.