GAME 4 PICK: KNICKS BOUNCE BACK, BRUNSON ANSWERS

Game 4 of the NBA Finals tips at 8:30 PM ET tonight at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are 1.5 point favorites. The total is 216.5. The pick: New York 105, San Antonio 99. The series goes 3 to 1 Knicks heading back to San Antonio for Game 5.

The math belongs to the Knicks even after Monday's loss. The SportsLine model has New York winning 57 percent of simulations. The Under hits 55 percent of the time. The Knicks lost a game they had no business losing in their own building. The reaction to that on the bench is usually a Game 4 win.

Tipoff Is 8:30 ET, the Garden Has Monday Night to Forget

The Knicks have not lost two straight Finals home games in any series since Patrick Ewing was on the roster. The 13 game playoff win streak ended Monday. The bigger fact is what was broken: New York had not lost ANY game in 43 days entering Game 3. A team riding that long does not roll over twice.

The Garden tonight will be louder than Monday. That sounds backwards because the room was already louder than any building in basketball, but the way a New York crowd processes a loss is to come back angrier the next time. Section 112 is going to spend tonight on its feet from tipoff.

Knicks Minus 1.5 Means the Model Trusts the Bounce

Books moved the Knicks to 1.5 point favorites with a total of 216.5. That spread is short for a home favorite in a Finals game. It reads as the books pricing in the Game 3 surprise without overcorrecting. The model behind the SportsLine pick gives New York 57 percent and the Under 55 percent. Those numbers together say tighter game, slightly slower pace, Knicks edge.

The Wemby player prop is the one to watch. Points plus rebounds set at 38.5 with the model projection at 40.5. If you believe the projection over the book, you take the Over and ride a player who put up 32 and 8 in Game 3. If you believe Tom Thibodeau makes the adjustment, you take the Under. The pick on the spread does not depend on that prop, but the prop is the read on the night.

Brunson Is the Variable That Decides Game 4

Wembanyama's Game 3 line was 32 points, 22 of them at the rim or the line, against a Knicks interior that gave him the angle every trip down. That fix is the obvious Thibodeau adjustment for tonight. Bring more bodies into the paint. Switch onto Wemby earlier. Foul if you have to.

The reverse adjustment is on Brunson. The Knicks star scored, but the offense around him stalled in the second half. Brunson plays a different game at MSG than he plays on the road. His career splits in the building are better in every category. Tonight he will see more catch and shoot looks, more switches he can attack, and a Knicks bench that has been quiet for two games waking up because they have to.

The other variable: Stephon Castle was the closer in Game 3. The Spurs will run the same closing lineup tonight, betting that lightning strikes twice from the second year guard. The Knicks know it now. Brunson will see Castle in the closing possessions. That switch the Spurs got at the end of Game 3 is the one the Knicks have been studying on film since Monday.

The Pick: Knicks 105, Spurs 99, Series Goes 3 to 1

The closing read: New York 105, San Antonio 99. The Knicks defense tightens the paint. Brunson scores 28 to 32. Wemby gets his line but does not steal the building twice. The series ends Wednesday night up 3 to 1 Knicks with two games to win out of three, the next one back in San Antonio.

The leverage frame: a Knicks team that has not lost two straight in seven weeks is the favorite to not lose two straight in Game 4. The model agrees. The line agrees. The Garden agrees. Wemby is going to make it interesting. The Knicks are going to win.

If the Spurs steal Game 4 too, the Wembanyama story everyone has been writing all year becomes the defining Finals run of his career inside of nine months. We will write that piece if the receipts force it. They will not.

Tonight: take Knicks minus 1.5. Take the Under. Watch Brunson respond. Tipoff is 8:30 ET on ABC.