Bears Plan to Start Caleb Williams on a Torn Hamstring

Caleb Williams says the hamstring injury that ended his Week 2 was a torn muscle, and Ian Rapoport reports the Bears plan to start him Sunday against the Falcons in Atlanta. Chicago has scored 57 points in the three games he missed, two fewer than the 59 it scored with him in Week 1.

Photo: Scott Boehm/AP.

57 Points in Three Games Without Him

The Bears scored 27, 23 and 7 in Weeks 3 through 5 with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent at quarterback, which is 57 points across three games against 59 in the opener. They went 2 and 1 in that stretch anyway, so the return is a question of ceiling more than survival.

Keenum started on Monday night and won 27 to 7 in Philadelphia, throwing for 247 yards and two touchdowns and adding a rushing score. Bagent came back from concussion protocol in Week 4 and beat the Jets 23 to 12, with Keenum taking a ceremonial first snap and handing off before Bagent took over.

Week 5 was the other side of it. Green Bay won 31 to 7, Bagent went 12 of 21 for 87 yards with two interceptions, and Keenum replaced him in the fourth quarter to finish 11 of 19 for 108 yards with an interception and a lost fumble. Seven points was 20 fewer than Keenum's win in Philadelphia, and Williams was listed as questionable that week before sitting out.

Compare that with Week 1, when Williams threw for 269 yards and ran for 65 in the 59 to 37 win over Carolina, the highest scoring Week 1 game in NFL history.

Strain in September, Tear in October

Williams said on October 15 that he was dealing with a torn hamstring, the first time he confirmed a tear, per Field Level Media. The earlier reporting called it a Grade 2 right hamstring strain, and a Grade 2 strain is a partial tear of the muscle, so the two descriptions overlap more than they sound.

The injury came in the fourth quarter of the home opener against Minnesota, when he was carted off in Week 2 with a noncontact injury and the Vikings closed out a 9 to 3 win. An MRI the next day showed a strain, and Ben Johnson listed him as week to week. By Week 3 the timeline attached to the injury was three to four weeks. He has now missed three games, the low end of that range.

The practice log points the same direction. Johnson said Williams would be a full participant on Wednesday's injury report, and Thursday made it two straight days of full work, the first consecutive full practices since he got hurt. Williams also said the injury has not fully healed and that he still had a stress test and other evaluations to clear, per The Athletic's Adam Jahns.

Johnson Called It Fluid, Rapoport Called It Likely

The people reporting on the Bears and the person running them are describing different levels of certainty. Rapoport said Tuesday there was a "pretty good chance" the Bears would start Williams, and Adam Schefter reported he was on track to start in Atlanta. Johnson called the plan "still fluid" and said earlier in the week, "I think it's going to be close."

Johnson's most direct line came after Thursday's practice. "He's doing a great job progressing and we'll see when we can make him available to help us win ball games," he said, per Field Level Media. He also declined to say whether a full week of practice means a start.

The betting market has already made its read. After the practice reports the Bears moved to road favorites at DraftKings, where they sit at 3 points with a total of 47.5, per SI. Circa has them at 3.5 and BetMGM at 2.5. Bleacher Nation's game page still listed Williams as questionable.

Atlanta Is 2 and 3 and Has Its Own Injury Question

The Falcons are 2 and 3 after losing to Baltimore in overtime in Week 5, a game Michael Penix Jr. was hurt late in. Penix is expected to start Sunday if his rib injury causes no setbacks.

Atlanta's first win of the season was a 35 to 14 Thursday night win at Lambeau Field in Week 3. Two weeks later the Bears lost 31 to 7 to the same Packers team, which is a 21 point margin for Atlanta against a 24 point margin for Green Bay over Chicago. Kickoff is 1 p.m. ET on FOX at Mercedes Benz Stadium.

The Case Against a Quick Fix

The easy read is that Williams fixes the offense on sight. Two games say it is not that simple. The Bears averaged 31 points a game across the two games he played in this season and 19 across the three he missed, but one of those two games was the 9 to 3 loss in which the offense managed 3 points before he went down.

That is a 12 point gap on a two game sample, one of which ended with him on a cart. If he plays Sunday, the number to watch is whether a quarterback coming off a torn hamstring can run for 65 yards again, because the 59 point night in Week 1 was built on his legs as much as his arm. The stress test is the last box, and the Bears get their answer at 1 p.m. ET.